DVR Flex

I'm coining a new word.

deaveyarflex - dee vee arr flex - The ability exhibited whereupon when fast-forwarding at the maximum speed setting through commercials a viewer is able to flip back to regular viewing speed at the precise instant when the commercial portion ends and his or her program resumes, thereby viewing no real advertising impression yet not missing one note of the watched show's lead-in music.

My deaveyarflexes are terrible.

Makes me kind of wonder, however -- what with the growing popularity of DVRs, and them being built directly into new cable and satellite boxes -- how in the short term the above issue affects the media cost of lead-in and lead-out TV ads versus ads sandwiched in the center of the block, and in the long term how the majority of 18-34-year-olds owning DVRs is going to affect core television advertising revenues.

A few predictions:

1. Five years. R.I.P. broadcast TV. By then the majority of consumed video content will be provided via the internet.
2. Much of the content will be purchased via a one-time per-episode payment (e.g., the iTunes model), but the majority will be purchased via a subscription basis, which will include a variety of different shows -- similar to the current cable TV model, but with different online media providers offering different content packages.
3. The big networks -- NBC, CBS, etc. -- will die a slow death, being replaced by HBO-like content bundlers who will serve only to find and finance the next big programs, then sell them to the online content providers.
4. For consumers who can afford internet access but not premium, commercial-free content, there will always be content bundles which include ads, but which eliminate the fast-forward and pause DVR features. Given a consumer's online profile, these ads will be tailored and versioned dynamically for relevancy.
5. iTunes will live on in some form, but the majority of online video revenue in the long run is going to go to Microsoft and Google. The former has already taken a tentative step into online media sales via the disturbingly-named "Urge" music service, and will likely continue to push their online content offering across handhelds and their Xbox platforms. With their recent purchase of YouTube, however, within 18 months Google will roll out both their online video "premium" portal , in the beginning offering quality amateur films and television episodes online for a price but eventually primetime television and major movies. At the same time they are going begin a much stronger push for adoption of their highly-touted Google Wallet, which will be aimed at replacing PayPal as the premium online payment service.

It's gonna be fun, in the meantime it's just a matter of looking forward to seeing how the hardware providers start figuring out user-friendly ways to display online video on new HDTVs, along with how quickly Verizon FIOS and Comcast 16MB can start rolling their fiber offerings out at an acceptable cost to major markets.